Measurement

Why your ROAS is lying to you

A 5× ROAS can be a disaster and a 3× ROAS can be a goldmine. ROAS ignores margin, fees, returns and repeat purchases, which are the four things that decide whether an ad account makes money. Here is the number we use instead.

Last updated 2026-11-05

The formula

Net profit = revenue × gross margin − ad spend − agency fee − returns and payment costs. Run it monthly, per account. It is the only number on our weekly report that an owner cannot argue with.

Two accounts, same ROAS, opposite outcomes

Skincare brandOnline pharmacy
RevenueR627,000R627,000
ROAS7.4×7.4×
Ad spendR85,000R85,000
Gross margin58%24%
Gross profitR364,000R150,000
Fee, returns, paymentR93,000R93,000
Net profitR186,000−R28,000

Identical ROAS. One brand keeps R186,000 a month; the other loses money on every sale. This is why the pharmacy account in our case studies is run at 12.3× on Google Shopping with Meta restricted to repeat buyers, and the skincare account is run at 7.4× with aggressive Meta prospecting.

What ROAS also hides

  • New versus returning. Retargeting past buyers produces a beautiful ROAS and no growth. We report new-customer revenue separately.
  • Repeat value. A subscription or replenishment product can lose money on the first order and make it back by the third. First-order ROAS says stop; lifetime value says scale.
  • Attribution overlap. Meta, Google and OpenAI each claim the same purchase. Add their ROAS together and you have invented revenue. We reconcile against the store’s actual sales every week.

How to use it

Set a target cost per new customer from margin and repeat value, not from a ROAS rule of thumb. Raise budget when net profit grows two weeks in a row. When it falls, look at creative, tracking and competition before touching the budget. It is less exciting than a ROAS dashboard and it is how the accounts in our case studies were scaled.

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FAQ

Frequently asked questions

What is a good ROAS for e-commerce in South Africa?

There is no universal answer. A 60%-margin brand is comfortably profitable at 3× blended; a 25%-margin retailer needs 8× or more. Work it back from margin and fees.

Should I use blended or platform ROAS?

Blended, reconciled against store revenue. Platform ROAS is useful for optimisation inside each account and useless for deciding whether the business is making money.

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